This article was originally published at SportsReelBoston.com.
Lester may return to Boston and he may not. The entire situation is completely up in the air. However, something that is as plain as the nose on your face is that the Red Sox are going to be paying big this offseason- one way or another. The only real say they have is who is going to be on the receiving end of their checks and/or their prospects.
********************************
You can check me out on Facebook or follow me on Twitter @historianandrew
Having recently endured a ten-game losing streak that saw
them tumble briefly into the basement of the American League East, the Boston
Red Sox have many concerns about the here and now- even after winning their
next four and counting. The future of impending free agent starting pitcher Jon
Lester should be an area of major worry, as no matter what happens with him,
the team is faced with a situation that is almost certain to result in huge
payout of one kind or another.
The 30-year-old left-handed Lester is one of the best
pitchers in Red Sox history. In a nine-year career, he has gone a combined
105-62 with a 3.74 ERA and 1,320 strikeouts, serving primarily as the team’s
ace. He has done so with class and dignity that began with his ongoing
successful bout with cance as a youngster. That and the two World Series
titles he has won with the team—including going 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in the Fall
Classic has earned him the admiration of Red Sox Nation.
Sadly, there is a chance that 2014 could be Lester’s last
season in Boston. He is due to become a free agent this winter and seems
destined to hit the open market. Although ESPN.com’s Dan Szymborski wrote an article
(subscription required) projecting that the southpaw is worth potentially as
much as a six-year, $145 million contract, Lester previously indicated
he might be willing to take a bit of a hometown discount to remain with the
organization that drafted him.
It turns out that hometown discount is one of those relative
terms that can mean different things to different people. That became apparent
when Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported
earlier this season that the Red Sox offered Lester a four-year deal in the
neighborhood of $70-$80 million- which was not accepted.
With Lester facing the possibility of making Kardashian
money this offseason, the Red Sox have a situation where they are almost
definitely going to have to lay out a ton of cash. If not for their lefty, then
for his replacement, as his departure would leave a gaping hole at the top of
the rotation.
Currently, the Red Sox have Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and
Felix Doubront as starters under contract for 2015. Lackey and Doubront have
proven they can be mid-to-end of rotation hurlers, but they are not guys who
profile as number ones.
Buchholz has ace potential, but has battled injuries and
inconsistency throughout his career. At 2-4 with a 7.02 ERA thus far in 2014,
he is currently on the disabled list and may not even be in the rotation much
longer if he doesn’t turn things around when he returns.
Boston has some intriguing pitching prospects like Brandon
Workman, Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, Anthony Renaudo and Henry Owens, but none
of them are sure things (or necessarily aces) and some still need some time
down on the farm to get major league-ready.
Simply put, if the Red Sox don’t bring Lester back, they
will need to find an ace somewhere. As one of the majors’ frontline franchises,
they expect to compete every year. There is no realistic way to do that without
a strong starting rotation that needs a proven horse at the top.
Lester could absolutely be on the level when he says he
might take less money to remain in Boston. On the other hand, it’s unlikely
that he will shortchange himself too much with the potential riches at his
grasp. As a battle-tested lefty with years of success under his belt, he should
have a plethora of teams laying out an assortment of their finest wines and
cheeses to try and lure him away.
Unfortunately, once the words “hometown discount” have been
uttered by a player, that usually holds to a ridiculous standard that portrays
them as somehow selfish if they don’t sign a below-market deal. Lester should
not be thought of in that way if he chooses to take the deal that suits him
best. He is at the peak of his career and has set himself up to capitalize on
the hard work he has invested in his career. He has earned the right to
maximize his value—the same expectation anybody would have in their work life—from
a doctor to a waiter.
It will be shocking, especially given the recent fiery hot
pitching market, if Lester is signed for any less than $130-$150 million—and possibly
even more. There is no scenario where the Red Sox can avoid cracking their
checkbook open like the tomb of Lazarus if they wish to retain their ace.
Even if Boston determines Lester is too rich for their
blood, they will facing a similarly high price to find his replacement. Max
Scherzer, James Shields and Justin Masterson are the current best starters
expected to be free agents this fall. Despite varying ages and levels of prior
success, they have all pitched at the front of rotations, and will never have
to shop the discount racks again.
Pitchers like David Price and Jeff Samardzija may be
available in a trade but would require a boatload of premium prospects for
their current respective teams to agree to give up such talented horseflesh.
With one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Red Sox have the pieces to
make just about any deal happen. However, doing so could be the equivalent of
robbing Peter to pay Paul. While their rotation could be shored up in the short
term, the price tag could be the future security of a self-sustaining
organization suffering a major blow.
Lester may return to Boston and he may not. The entire situation is completely up in the air. However, something that is as plain as the nose on your face is that the Red Sox are going to be paying big this offseason- one way or another. The only real say they have is who is going to be on the receiving end of their checks and/or their prospects.
You can check me out on Facebook or follow me on Twitter @historianandrew
No comments:
Post a Comment