Although the 2014 MLB postseason is still being battled out
on the field, many teams have started looking towards next year. Once this
season concludes, the gates to the free agent market will swing open and allow
interested bidders to rush in like early birds at a swap meet.
Here is an early list of speculative predictions as to where
the top 2015 MLB free agents might land:
Pitcher Max Scherzer-
Chicago Cubs: Having won 70 games over the past four seasons with the
Detroit Tigers, the right-hander is deservedly about to come into a large sum
of money. However, with the $180 million extension
rotation-mate Justin Verlander signed with the Tigers last year starting to
look very iffy, the team may reluctant to go all in on Scherzer, who is just a
year and a half younger. Additionally, this may be the team’s line in the sand
when it comes to picking between re-signing him and left-hander David Price,
who is slotted for free agency next offseason.
Look for the Cubs, who have declared their intentions
to compete in 2015, to swoop in with their dump
trucks full of money and snag a pitcher who can potentially lead their
rotation for the next decade.
Pitcher Jon Lester-
Chicago Cubs: Why have just one shiny new toy when you can have two? The
veteran lefty’s history with Chicago president Theo Epstein should create a mutual
level of comfort. Locking in a pitcher of this caliber to pair with someone
like Scherzer would make it difficult for the team, even with a roster of comprised
mainly of young talent, to not be immediate contenders.
Red Sox fans who have hoped for Lester’s return following a
2014 mid-season trade
to the Oakland Athletics need a reality check. If he was going to stay with
Boston long-term, an extension would have been hammered out earlier in the
year. Having him return now would be bad business given the extra money (quite
a bit given his strong 2014 season) and draft pick they would need to give up
to their prodigal son.
Pitcher James Shields-
Boston Red Sox: About to turn 33, and with at least 185 innings in each of
the last nine seasons, the right-hander has more wear and tear than most.
However, he is a first-rate gamer and the type of pitcher Boston needs to start
rebuilding their rotation. The Kansas City Royals would undoubtedly love to
have him back but the Red Sox and their recent fondness of inking players of
this ilk to lucrative deals in the range of three or four years will impede
them.
Signing Shields smacks of a classic Boston move, as he won’t
cost as much in dollars or years as the top tier pitchers, yet has the ability
to come close to matching them in production over the next few seasons.
Catcher Russell
Martin- Los Angeles Dodgers: There is little doubt that the Pittsburgh
Pirates would like to retain their All-Star receiver. Problem is they don’t
have the deep pockets of a team like the Dodgers, who could really use an
upgrade behind the plate. Although he will be 32 next year, Martin may receive an
offer from Los Angeles he can’t refuse to return to the organization where he
began his career.
Shortstop/Third
Baseman Hanley Ramirez- Los Angeles Dodgers: The career .300 hitter has
played shortstop for most of his 10-year major league career. Given his age (31
next season) and reputation as a below-average fielder, his future is likely at
the hot corner (where 35-year-old incumbent Juan Uribe is signed only through
2015). He has played well in his two-plus seasons with the Dodgers, who have
the ability to beat any other offer the right-handed batter might receive on
the open market.
Outfielder Nelson
Cruz- Baltimore Orioles: Despite leading the American League in home runs
with 40 in 2014, the right-handed hitter batted just .249 over the second half
of the season. A 2013 PED suspension,
a decided lack of defensive skills and an upcoming 35th birthday have all
contributed to him never receiving a lucrative multi-year contract expected for
most players with his offensive production. He and the Orioles seem to have hit
on a good mutual relationship this season, so the likely lack of strong
competition for his services should mean his return to the Birds.
Third Baseman Pablo
Sandoval- San Francisco Giants: Kung Fu Panda has hit a combined .294 and
may be playing in his third World Series during a seven-year major league
career. However, the switch-hitter has battled weight problems and doesn’t
possess elite power. The Red Sox are another team that could probably use his
services the most but their caution of late on the free agent market may mean
they will pass on Sandoval and allow him to return to the team with whom he has
been such a big part of their recent success.
Designated Hitter
Victor Martinez- Seattle Mariners: Believe it or not, even though Martinez
is a legitimate 2014 MVP candidate, he may have a relative shortage of serious
suitors. As a DH, he is limited to the American League, where many teams
already have established players in the role or use the lineup slot to rest
aging veterans. Detroit can likely afford to let him go, as they have a number
of offensively gifted and defensively challenged players in their lineup that
can have their gloves benched 162 times a season. On the other side, the
Mariners made great strides in 2014 and could see their momentum push them into
the playoffs next year by adding a hitter with of patience and ability of the
switch-hitter.
Outfielder Yasmani
Tomas- San Diego Padres: The Cuban slugger has been generating significant
interest since it was announced he was an eligible free agent. The success of
some of his fellow countrymen, particularly likely 2014 AL Rookie of the Year
Jose Abreu, should have teams salivating over the 24 year-old prospect. The
Padres have already outed
themselves as an interested party, which should come as little surprise
given their lackluster .226 team batting average and .342 team slugging
percentage this season.. Although there is risk in signing such a relative
unknown, this may be the Padres’ best chance to inject their lineup with a possible
difference maker without breaking the $100 million mark.
Outfielder Melky
Cabrera- New York Mets: Cabrera bounced back from a disappointing 2013 season
and PED
suspension in 2012 with a nice campaign this year for the Toronto Blue
Jays. Although the 30-year-old switch-hitter has hit a combined .309 over the
past four seasons, he might not receive the same attention as might be expected
due to his poor glove work and sketchy past. Nonetheless, he will be a nice
pick-up for somebody and this seems like the type of mid-level bargain the cash-strapped
Mets may be able to fit into their budget. With Eric Young and his anemic bat
patrolling left field for much of this year, adding someone like Cabrera would
be a major upgrade.
Pitcher Ervin Santana-
Seattle Mariners: Santana isn’t an ace but has averaged 12 wins and 188
innings pitched over the first 10 years of his career—all but last year spent
with the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. Prone to the long ball, pitching
half his games in the Mariners’ spacious Safeco Field would
help mitigate that flaw on his under-appreciated resume.
Shortstop Stephen
Drew- New York Yankees: Drew was awful this season, hitting just a combined
.162 in 85 games with the Red Sox and Yankees. He may have played himself out
of a good chunk of money but his steady glove and reputation as a solid hitter
in the past will still land him a gig. The most natural fit is returning to New
York, which has a black hole at second base, no shortstop with the retirement
of Derek Jeter, and a soon-to-be 40-year-old third baseman who won’t have played
a regular season game in a year and a half. Drew’s ability to play all of those
positions makes his return a strong likelihood.
Infielder Asdrubal
Cabrera- New York Yankees: See above. Once considered a rising star, the
28-year-old Cabrera has merely been an average player over the past couple of
seasons. However, he has positional versatility and as recently as 2011 hit
.273 with 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Although the Yankees are well-known for
their free-wheeling spending, they have so many large contracts on file that
this could be the offseason where frugality wins the day. He won’t come
cheaply, but Cabrera could be more reasonable than other options.
Pitcher Jake Peavy- Pittsburgh
Pirates: He’ll be 34 by next year’s All Star break but after going 6-4 with
a 2.12 ERA in 12 starts with the Giants after coming over from the Red Sox in a
mid-season trade,
he showed he still has gas left in the tank and may be a better fit in the
National League. Past arm issues and production that has been in decline since
his 2007 National League Cy Young win will impact his offers. Enter the thrifty
by necessity Pirates, who could offer him a reasonable multi-year deal, which
could be all the more appealing for the veteran because of their playoff
appearances the past two years.
Third Baseman Aramis
Ramirez- Boston Red Sox: Even if 2014 Boston starter Will Middlebrooks has
a major comeback in him, the team may have already decided to move on next
year. A 17-year major league veteran, Ramirez still has a productive bat and
would be available on one of those shorter contracts the team so enjoys.
The emergence of Brock Holt means Ramirez wouldn’t be
required to play every day, which would hopefully maximize his impact. The team has struck gold with third basemen
in their 30s in the recent past (Bill Mueller and Mike Lowell), so it wouldn’t
be a shock to see that happen again. The Green Monster at Fenway Park would be
an inviting target for his bat, which has launched 464 doubles and 369 homers
during his career.
Outfielder Nick
Markakis- Baltimore Orioles: The left-handed hitter does a little bit of
everything but never developed into a star. The current longest-tenured member
of the Orioles probably won’t have enough outside interest to lure him away
from the team where he has spent his entire nine-year MLB career, so a return
seems imminent.
Pitcher Brandon
McCarthy- Boston Red Sox: It’s hard to imagine the Red Sox beginning next
year with a rotation predominantly made up of rookies and youngsters but unless
they sign or trade for at least two veterans to join the returning Clay
Buchholz, that’s exactly what would happen. The right-handed McCarthy was
stellar (7-5, 2.89 ERA) after being traded
to the Yankees this July.
Although McCarthy has struggled with injuries in the past,
he reached 200 innings for the first time in his career this season, keeps the
ball in the park and is very analytically
driven—much like Boston. Having pitched into at least the sixth inning in
all but four of his 32 starts in 2014, he is a solid veteran who could help
firm up the Red Sox’s rotation—at a fraction of the price of some of his fellow
free agents.
Pitcher Francisco
Liriano- Kansas City Royals: Still prone to bouts of wildness, the
left-hander reclaimed his career during the past two seasons with Pittsburgh
after flaming out with the Minnesota Twins. With the Royals appearing World
Series-bound and facing a likely uphill battle to keep current ace Shields,
adding another impact arm may be a necessity. An added benefit of signing
Liriano would be the ability of teaming him with Danny Duffy and Jason Vargas
and giving the team a heavy southpaw theme in 2015.
*These are predictions
based on speculation from reviewing team needs, history etc... No direct
sources were utilized in the forming of these opinions.
**Statistics obtained
from BaseballReference.com
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