Multiple outlets have reported
that the Miami Marlins are on the verge of reaching a landmark contract
extension with their young outfielder Giancarlo
Stanton. The 25-year-old slugger is about to ink a deal that could pay him
a whopping $325 million over the next 13 years, which would be the largest pact
in professional sports history. While he is a rising young star and one of the
most personable players in the game, there are a number of reasons to believe
that giving him this kind of contract is a big mistake.
The big right-handed hitter has batted .271 with 154 home
runs and 399 RBIs in 634 games over five seasons. 2014 was his best year to
date, as he hit .288 with a league-leading 37 homers and 105 RBIs in 145 games,
while placing second in the National League MVP race. Unfortunately, his season
was brutally
ended on September 11th in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers when he was
hit in the face by a Mike Fiers pitch that caused numerous fractures and other injuries
requiring surgery.
Stanton is freakishly strong and athletic, is by all
accounts a wonderful person and teammate, and has already shown he can produce
at a high level in the majors. Thus, it would seem he is the perfect candidate
to push the biggest contract envelope. However, there are no guarantees in
sports that a player is ever going to live up to any contract, and in particular,
the marriage of the young outfielder and the Marlins may make an even riskier
proposition than usual.
Can the Marlins
Compete with Stanton?
ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription
required) recently wrote that the Marlins view Stanton as “their Cal Ripken.”
Having been drafted by the organization in the second round of the 2007 draft,
he is already nearing a decade with the franchise. His popularity and
production make him the most obvious candidate to be the face of the
organization but it will obviously come at a large financial investment.
Although Miami was the recipient of a heavily
publicly-funded stadium in 2012, they have often been thrifty when it comes
to spending on the talent they put on the field. In 2014, their payroll
of $46.4 million was just a notch above the Houston Astros and their $44.4
million, which represented the lowest in baseball. Only once in the past 15
years has the Marlins’ payroll
been in the top-half of teams in the majors, with that one season being 2012—when
making a positive show in the wake of the controversial new venue was a virtual
necessity.
Stanton’s yearly average salary with his new deal would
represent well over half of what the Marlins spent on players last year. The
team certainly has more money to spend, but not the same as those in larger
markets like New York, Boston and Los Angeles. Baseball is simply never going
to draw that kind of attraction in Florida. Would there be enough meat left on
the proverbial bone to surround him with the talent to make for a contending
team? If history is any indication, he could wind up like Ripken- in receiving
a lot of earned credit but not a lot of postseason appearances.
Do You Give a Third
of a Billion Dollars to a Player Coming Off Such a Serious Injury?
Reports
about Stanton’s recovery from his bean ball incident have been encouraging.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t be ready well in advance of 2015 spring
training. However, what we know about him is physical; the mental recovery has
yet to be seen. Taking a pitch to the face is akin to being involved in a
serious accident. It’s trauma, plain and simple. Having the courage and mental
toughness to get back in the batter’s box and attack pitchers with the same
laser focus and aggressiveness is no easy task.
The Boston Red Sox had a young outfielder named Tony Conigliaro,
who led the American League with 32 home runs as a 20-year-old in 1965. He was
well on his way to being one of the team’s best players ever when he was struck in the face
by a pitch in 1967. He returned in 1969 but was never the same. Granted, he
suffered some permanent damage to his vision but there was certainly a mental
component to it as well.
It’s not to say that Conigliaro and Stanton suffered equally
physically debilitating injuries as much as it is to point out that there are
many complex components to returning from such an experience. While the body
may indicate to a player that he is able to come back, the mind may have
something entirely different to say on the matter.
One can only hope that Stanton comes back stronger and
better than ever. That being said, giving him the largest contract in
professional sports history before he has played one competitive inning since
the beaning seems rash. Since he is under team control through arbitration for
the next two seasons, there was no urgency in getting a deal done this
offseason.
Getting a little more information and context are never bad
things when negotiating landmark contracts. The Philadelphia Phillies gave
slugger Ryan
Howard a $125 million extension
in 2012, two years before he was due to be a free agent. Since then, his production
has fallen off a cliff.
All contracts in sports are gambles. There are simply no
sure things. It all comes down to taking smart and calculated risks. With the
way Stanton’s 2014 season ended, it seems like an extraordinary leap of faith
to lock him in before seeing how and if he bounces back.
Is Stanton Actually a
Superstar?
Stanton is an excellent player. However, it’s reasonable to
ask if he is a superstar—particularly is he one who will sustain his production
for a reasonably lengthy period of time.
There is little doubt that Stanton is one of, if not “the”,
premiere power hitters in the game. By just about any metric,
he hits the balls harder and farther than anyone else, but what about his
others skills?
He is a good but not great defensive player. At 6’6” and 240
pounds, he presently gets pretty close to maximum value in the outfield with
his body type. It will be interesting to see how long he can maintain his
ability with the glove or if he will eventually recede into a DH skill set—which
would be problematic with the Marlins playing in the National League.
Injuries have played a significant role during the early
stages of his career. In his first four full seasons, he has missed a total of
114 games, with most of those being due to various ailments. It’s fair to
wonder if he can consistently stay healthy, as the amount of money he will be
making for a team of Miami’s financial inclinations would mean he needs to be
on the field as much as possible.
While Stanton makes his fair share of contact, he is also a
prolific whiffer, having struck out 742 times in 2,640 career plate
appearances. That’s good for once every 3.56 at-bats, or about once per game on
average. That figure has not changed appreciably as his career has progressed,
but could it as he ages and his bat speed eventually reaches the point where it
inevitably slows?
Baseball Reference’s player comparison by age indicates that
Stanton’s current closest comp is former Texas Rangers slugger Juan Gonzalez.
Gonzo was definitely an excellent player but never developed into the
Hall-of-Famer some had him pegged for earlier in his career. He was through
being an impact player after his age-31 season and was out of baseball at 35. If
nothing else, that’s a reminder of how expectations don’t always get fulfilled
and how quickly a player can decline.
Conclusion:
The immediate take away should be that Giancarlo Stanton is
one of baseball’s bright young stars and should be congratulated for landing
his huge new contract. However, as Uncle Ben once famously told his nephew
Peter Parker (we’ll forget that Voltaire actually coined the phrase), “With
great power comes great responsibility.” It’s for that reason and that reason
alone that picking through the player and the deal with a fine-toothed comb is
a necessity.
As mentioned previously, every contract in professional
sports comes with its own risks and concerns. These become magnified as the
deals get longer and the expenditures increase. About to get a guarantee for an
historic amount of money, the spotlight is about to shine on Stanton with the
luminescence of a pulp detective interrogation room lamp. Here’s hoping that
the deal works out for both sides, but in the meantime there are a number of reasons
to question whether or not it is a big mistake.
You can check me out on Facebook or follow me on Twitter @historianandrew
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