Nobody has ever been unanimously elected to the Baseball
Hall of Fame. Even those like Babe Ruth
and Willie
Mays, whose production and legend place them in a totally different
stratosphere, didn’t receive 100 percent support for their enshrinement. Thus,
the annual ballot typically has a number of candidates whose merits are the
fodder for furious debate, trying to prove who is over and who is short of the
imaginary line that establishes who is a Hall of Famer and who is just another
retired player. One member of the 2015 ballot that falls into this category is
pitcher John
Smoltz, who perhaps has the most interesting case of anyone in this year’s
class.
Let’s get a few bits of business out of the way. First, early
indications
are that Smoltz will likely receive the requisite 75 percent of the votes needed
for enshrinement when the results are announced on January 6, 2015. Second, I
personally believe he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Having watched him
since he began his career, he passes my eye test. There is no set standard or authoritative
voice that determines who is in and who is out. Accordingly, let’s break down
his case a bit more to see what the statistics, anecdotes and other shreds of
evidence used in such arguments have to say.
The Resume:
Played- 1988-2009
(except for 2000, which he sat out with injury) for the Atlanta Braves, Boston
Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals.
Career Statistics-
213-155, 3.33 ERA in 723 games (481 starts), 53 complete games, 16 shutouts,
154 saves, 3,084 strikeouts, 3,473 innings pitched.s started (thrice); innings
pitched (twice); strikeouts (twice); saves (once).
Awards/Recognitions-
Eight-time All Star; won 1996 National League Cy Young Award; four other top-10
Cy Young finishes; 1997 Silver Slugger Award; 1992 National League NLCS MVP;
2002 National League Rolaids Relief Award; 2005 Lou Gehrig
Memorial Award (player who best personifies Gehrig’s character and
integrity on and off the field); 2005 Roberto Clemente
Award (good play combined with outstanding work in the community); 2007 Branch Rickey Award
(community service recognition).
It seems that with a record this varied and accomplished,
one would be hard-pressed to dismiss the right-handers candidacy out of hand.
However, he doesn’t have the same straight-forward case as most players. He missed
significant time (probably close to three full seasons-worth) because of
injury; bounced between starting and closing; never hit any major benchmarks
(300 wins, no pitching triple crowns, only three seasons with at least 15 wins,
etc); and was often considered his team’s third starter (pitching with Hall of
Famers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in Atlanta).
That all being said, Smoltz has an incredibly sound foundation
of a Hall of Fame resume built brick by brick during his lengthy career, including:
*Despite being a third starter in name, he was far from that
in actuality. With the kind of talent the Braves had in their starting
rotation, there couldn’t be three number one starters. Smoltz, who threw a
fastball (in the mid-90s), a devastating slider, split, changeup and curveball
very well may have had the best overall
pure stuff between himself and his vaunted rotation mates.
*He was a playoff beast. Although he only played on one
World Series winning team (1995 Atlanta Braves), he pitched in a whopping 25
series during his career, going a combined 15-4 with a 2.67 ERA, four saves and
199 strikeouts in 209 innings. He appears on the all-time postseason leader
board for many categories, including the most strikeouts of any pitcher.
*The path Smoltz’s career took was unprecedented. Between
1989-1999, he won 155 games and was widely considered among the best starters
in the game. He had Tommy John surgery, missed the entire 2000 season, returned
to partial duty in 2001, and then became a full-time closer the next three
years, compiling astounding totals of 144 saves and a 2.47 ERA.
Amazingly, his ability to adjust did not end in the bullpen,
as he was made a starter once again at the age of 38. From 2006-2008, he rang
up 44 wins, a 3.22 ERA and 667.3 innings. He also had to endure a half-dozen
other surgeries at various times during his career, making one wonder if he
was made out of some sort of new-aged titanium material rather than flesh and
bone.
The only pitcher that comes to mind with a similar career is
Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley, who also successfully converted from starting
to relieving. However, Eck did not have to overcome serious injury. He did
battle alcoholism,
and also never went back to starting once he joined the bullpen. He and Smoltz
remain the only pitchers in major league history to have both a 20-win and a
50-save season.
Smoltz’s ability to not only persevere but thrive through
the physical and mental roadblocks each transition must have taken is
remarkable. That alone should give him his own definable niche among
Hall-of-Fame inductees.
*Although Smoltz’s counting stats might not be as great as
others in the Hall, they are more formidable than they might first appear.
According to BaseballReference.com, his 66.5 career WAR is
39th all-time among pitchers. He is also 16th in strikeouts, 22nd in adjusted pitching
wins (33.9), 10th in win
probability added (40.5), and tied with the likes of Lefty Grove
and Jim
Palmer for 64th with a 125 ERA+—meaning he was 25 percent better than the
league average pitcher.
*Character, or alleged lack thereof, is something often used
as a weapon
against Hall of Fame candidates. The reverse is rarely true but if it was,
Smoltz would have that box emphatically filled in with No. 2 pencil.
According to the BBWAA
voting criteria, character is literally something that should be taken into
account when considering candidates— “Voting shall be based upon the player’s
record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions
to the team(s) on which the player played.” Smoltz is a first-ballot
good guy who has few superiors in that department.
Ultimately, the Baseball Hall of Fame is a museum capturing
the best moments, players and contributors in the game’s history. Just to be
considered is an actual honor but there will always be a debate over who
belongs, who doesn’t and why. After playing this rationalization game with
Smoltz’s career there should be no argument other than acknowledging the man
better look into flight and accommodation reservations for Cooperstown, New
York in late July, 2015.
Statistics obtained
from BasebalReference.com
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