As the last notes of Auld Lang Syne evaporate into the atmosphere,
and 2016 stretches its wings for the first time, the realization that spring
training is mere weeks away starts to settle in. Although the Boston Red Sox
made a significant
splash this offseason to upgrade their roster after consecutive disappointing
seasons, they are still a work in progress. Let’s take a look at five of the
biggest questions facing the team, and some predictions of how it will all play
out.
How will David Ortiz
finish his career?: Earlier this offseason, the Boston slugger announced
that 2016 will be his 20th and final major league season. Even at 39 this past
year, he was still the most valuable Red Sox hitter, contributing a .273
batting average, 37 home runs and 108 RBIs. Barring injury, there’s little
reason to believe that he won’t go out on a high note.
Despite his climbing age, Ortiz has remained remarkably
consistent, posting an OPS+ of at least 140 for the last five years. Not only
did he play in 146 games in 2015, but he even got stronger as the season wore
on, as evidenced by his .231/.326/.762 and .325/.401/1.102 batting
average/OBP/OPS splits for the first and second halves, respectively. A
continuation of such production will be important since he represents the only
true masher in their lineup, and barring injury, there’s little reason to think
it won’t happen. He is also a fiercely proud man who has always taken extreme
pride in his numbers. One final typical season could leapfrog him from his
current position of 27th all time in home runs (503) to inside the top 20—including
passing Red Sox legend Ted Williams
(521).
Can Rusney
Castillo live up to his $72
million contract?: To say that the first two seasons for the
28-year-old Cuban outfielder have been a disappointment would be an understatement.
During that time he has appeared in just 90 major league games, hitting a
combined .262 with 7 home runs and 35 RBIs. He has also battled injuries and
equally uninspiring production in the minors. He enters 2016 projected to receive
significant playing time, though he may share duties with the likes of Chris Young
and Brock
Holt.
Unfortunately, there is no true road map to what Castillo’s
future should be. Scouting
reports like his tools but have mostly shied away from pegging him as a
star. Although his career to date provides a relatively small sample size, there
is the alarming possibility he may just be a platoon player. The right-handed
batter has produced a .239/.283/.631 split against right-handed pitchers but
has looked much better versus lefties at .313/.343/.791. Anything is possible
but the likelihood is that he has already largely shown what he is—a toolsy but
not great player. There’s nothing wrong with that but it also doesn’t reconcile
well with his big contract.
Will shortstop Xander Bogaerts
find his power?: The young right-handed hitter is coming off a great season
by any measure, finishing second in the American Leaguer with a .320 batting
average. Perhaps the only thing that may have had any tinge of disappointment
was that he hit just seven home runs, which was far less than his projections
would have you believe he is capable of.
Although he may not have put many over the fence last year,
the signs are positive that Bogaerts is not only one of the best young hitters
in the game, but that his power is still developing. From April through the end
of the season, his monthly OPS trended positively (.694; .705; .771; .795;
.761; 876). Saving his best for last, he banged out three homers and nine doubles
over the final 29 games. He may not hit 30 home runs in 2016 but it would
appear that he is primed to take a big step forward in the power department.
What player will take
the biggest step forward in 2016?: With the team having so many young
players, there are many possibilities. However, right-handed starter Rick
Porcello appears to have the inside track if his finish this past year is
any indication.
Coming
over from the Detroit Tigers last offseason, there were big expectations
for the hurler, but he disappointed, contributing a 9-15 record
and a 4.92 ERA. Then why the optimism you might ask? There are actually two compelling
reasons. The first is that with David Price
being signed last month to anchor the rotation, there is no longer any need for
him to play the ace—a role for which he did not seem well suited. Additionally,
Porcello was actually very good down the stretch, posting a 3.53 ERA in his
final 11 starts, and struck out nearly a batter per inning (70 punchouts in
71.1 innings), which was a career-best clip. Now that he has experience pitching
in the Hub, and some of the pressure has been removed, the 27-year-old may be a
very pleasant surprise in 2016.
Who will be the fifth
starter?: The first four spots in the rotation seem fairly set in stone,
with Price, Porcello, Clay Buchholz
and Eduardo
Rodriguez leading the charge. There are several candidates for the final
slot (Joe
Kelly, Henry
Owens and Roenis Elias)
but without them even stepping on a spring mound, the favorite should be Owens.
The 22-year-old southpaw had a reasonable rookie campaign
this past year, going 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts. Long a top prospect, he
has the most upside of the three and has shown he deserves an opportunity to
build on his debut season. Elias looks like a good fit as a sixth starter/long
man if he makes the team, while Kelly has been riding a recent
swell of opinion that believes he could flourish as a reliever. At the very
least, the team has options—and decent options at that—which is different than
what could be said at this time last year.
Statistics via BaseballReference.com
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