Hopes are high for the 2016 Boston Red Sox. A strong
offseason that saw them land a number of players, including beefing up a lackluster
pitching staff, has optimism running high. However, not everything is
necessarily rosy. Although nary a game has been played, one area of potential
concern is the outfield, which could be an area of weakness for the team if things
don’t go just right.
On the surface, the Red Sox outfield is bursting with
potential. 23-year-old Mookie Betts
is already a star and will be manning right field. Former first round draft
pick Jackie
Bradley, Jr. will be the starter in center, while Rusney
Castillo, the Cuban defector who snared a big
contract two years ago, will guard left field. Veteran Chris Young,
who can handle all three position, will be the primary backup, and super
utility man Brock Holt
will fill in as needed.
Betts is the crown jewel of the unit. With his dynamic skill
set (.291 with 18 home runs, 21 stolen bases and above average defense in 2015),
his ability to stay on the field is imperative (let’s start by keeping him away
from golf
carts). The other Boston outfielders certainly have talent but also come
with a significant amount of unknown and risk.
Bradley is a world-class defender whose bat has gone through
peaks and valleys of Kilimanjaro proportions since becoming a major leaguer. He
has hit just .213 in parts of three seasons with the Red Sox but his August
last year gave cause for hope, as he produced a .354/.429/.1.163 batting average/OBP/OPS
split in 26 games. On the downside, that’s the only time other than July, 2014
(.278) where he has hit as high as .250 in a month while receiving regular
playing time. It remains to be seen if he can produce more hot streaks than
cold, or if he is simply too inconsistent to be a starter.
Likewise, the 28-year-old Castillo has been a cipher since
signing with Boston. The $72 million he received reflects the kind of player
the team believes he can be but scouting
reports have typically been mixed. He has appeared in 90 major league
games, hitting a combined .262 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases. He
has also shown good defense despite being shuffled all over the outfield. Like
Bradley, he was also red hot last August, producing a.338/.369/.894 split in 22
games. Unfortunately, his results were pedestrian outside of that one month. In
addition to adjusting to life and playing ball in a new country, he has also
battled nagging injuries. At this point it would not come as a surprise if he
were to break out in 2016, or if he continued to produce underwhelming results.
Young is poised to be the primary backup. The 32-year-old
right hander has some pop as evidenced by his 169 home runs in 10 major league
seasons. However, he has also hit just .235 while striking out approximately
once every four plate appearances during his career. Once a strong defensive
player, advanced metrics indicate his glove play has slipped in recent years.
Certainly a capable backup, the Red Sox could be in trouble
if circumstances necessitated regular playing time for Young. This is primarily
because he struggles mightily against right-handed pitching. He has hit just
.224 against them in his career and has seen his results increasingly worsen.
In 2015, while playing for the New York Yankees, he hit .252 with 14 home runs
but batted a measly .182 against right handers. Although he is a valuable
veteran, expecting anything other than spot starts against lefties would be a
mistake.
The final major component of the outfield mix is Holt. With
his ability to play average to above average defense at half a dozen positions,
he is a luxury for any roster—as long as he is used judiciously. Having spent
all but 24 games of his major league career with Boston, the 27-year-old is a
career .277 hitter. He doesn’t possess
much power or speed, so his value comes primarily filling in all over. Although
he doesn’t have platoon split issues, he has consistently seen his play decline
as the season wears on. For his career, he has produced a .309/.373/.803 split
in the first half of the season and a .241/.294/.600 split in the second half.
Since such numbers suggest his best use comes when deployed here and there
instead of on a regular basis.
The Red Sox do have a wildcard lurking in their minor league
system. Although he has only made it as far as Single-A, Andrew
Benintendi, the team’s 2015 first-round pick, is widely regarded as a
polished five-tool player who could be ready sooner rather than later. There is
no need to rush him right now but he could be tapped if any of the big league
outfielders falter.
The good news is that the currently projected outfield for
the 2016 Red Sox has talent, depth and youth. The bad news is that they lack a track
record of full-season consistency and have some players with holes in their
game. Since the team is expected
to contend it would be nice for that unit to have their outcome be more of a
foregone conclusion, but that’s why they play the games and fans should have a
good time seeing how it all shakes out.
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