By all traditional metrics the 2017 Boston Red Sox have had
a successful regular season. They head into the 162nd and final game
of the season against the Houston Astros having already sewn up the American
League East title and have a chance to notch their 94th victory of
the year. Regardless of what happens in the final contest they will proceed to
play those same Astros in the American League Divisional Series this coming
week. In addition to the team’s unknown playoff destiny, what are some takeaways
from this season? Let’s take a look.
They may have found
the catcher of the future:
It appears that the team has moved on from former highly
regarded (especially for his bat) catching prospect Blake
Swihart in favor of more lightly regarded catching prospect Christian
Vazquez (better known for his glove work). The plot twist has been that
Vazquez has maintained his talented glove (42 percent caught stealing) while
showing he may be better than advertised with the bat. His 91 OPS+ will not get
him confused with the likes of Giancarlo
Stanton but his .291 batting average in 98 games has meant the team has not
needed to give pause about throwing him out there.
Vazquez has hit nearly equally well against lefties and
righties (.748/.735 OPS split). One downside is that he has not fared so well
with his home/road split (.915/.577). It is encouraging to see what he has done
before and after All Star Break, where his OPS+ has gone from 78 to 118 in 49
games before and 49 games since. Now completing his 10th season with
the organization, he is still just 27 and looks to be entrenched as the
receiver who will be receiving the lion’s share of the time behind the plate
moving forward.
The lineup misses David Ortiz.
Badly:
This should come as no surprise, but the degree to which his
absence has impacted the offense has been huge. With one game left, the 2017
team has scored 782 runs. The 2016 squad, which was Ortiz’s swan song, put up
878 runs. Only five current lineup regulars boast an OPS+ of at least 100
(considered league average), with Eduardo
Nunez’s 129 mark well above runner up Rafael
Dever’s 112. By comparison, the 40-year-old Ortiz posted a 164 OPS+ last
year.
Dynamic young players like Mookie
Betts and Xander
Bogaerts have had solid but unremarkable seasons. They need to pick it up
going forward if the team is to recapture previous excellence with their bats.
The Red Sox currently lack a traditional slugger; the kind of hitter that is a consistent
threat for 35+ home runs. It doesn’t appear that such a player is on their
current roster or even in their minor league system, so getting creative in the
offseason may be on the docket.
The Sox might have
the best starting rotation in baseball in 2018:
Only those who have lived under a rock during these summer
months can claim ignorance as to the greatness Chris Sale
displayed in his first season with Boston. He is on the short list for the
upcoming Cy Young vote and has dominated hitters in Boston unlike anyone since Pedro
Martinez.
David Price
missed more than half the season with injuries and is finishing out the year in
the bullpen. However, he has pitched well (3.38 ERA and better than a strikeout
an inning) when he has been able to toe a rubber. It’s a decent bet that the
former Cy Young winner still has some tricks left up his sleeve.
A year after winning 22 games and the Cy Young, Rick
Porcello has been atrocious. He has a 4.65 ERA and leads the league with 17
losses, 236 hits and 38 home runs allowed. While he may not approach his Cy
Young level again, it’s also hard to imagine he will repeat this level of
ineptitude. He appears healthy and will still be just 29 next year, suggesting
that some simple adjustments may be all that’s needed to get him back to being
the pitcher that has average 13 wins per year over his first nine seasons.
Much wailing and gnashing of teeth occurred around New
England last year when the Sox shipped their top pitching prospect to the San
Diego Padres for Drew Pomeranz;
a talented but flawed lefty, who claimed a 22-31 record in parts of six
seasons. He did little to ease fears in his time with the team last year, going
just 4-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 14 games. It’s been a completely different story in
2017, as he has been an admirable number two to Sale, going 17-6 with a 3.32
ERA and 174 strikeouts. Still just 28, he is arbitration eligible and will be
with the team at least one more year.
His numbers won’t blow you away but 24-year-old Eduardo
Rodriguez made strides this year towards his potential as a top-flight
young pitcher. He was 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 25 games (24 starts) but struck
out 150 batters in 137.1 innings and his 3.97 FIP was nearly identical to that
of his teammate Pomeranz (3.83). Rodriguez once again missed time with injuries
and will need to stay on the field to continue moving forward. That being said,
he can continue to develop while being stashed in the number five starter role.
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As re Sox '18 rotation, don't forget MIA Steven Wright to be added to that mix (and a bullpen with a full year of Carson Smith as well). I still haven't given up hope of some of the youngsters who had been much touted in recent years (Johnson, Owens). A DH/1B power bat would be just the thing, a mere tweak, to join the dominant ones at the top of the league.
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