The recent
signing of free-agent outfielder Bryce
Harper to a record-breaking 13-year, $330 million contract by the
Philadelphia Phillies sent shock waves across baseball. Although the star
slugger will continue making his home in the National League, the deal may have
a surprising impact on the Boston Red Sox—specifically in their pursuit to
retain their soon-to-be free agent star Mookie
Betts.
The reigning American League MVP and leader of the 2018
World Champions is not eligible to be a free agent until after the 2020 season.
However, it’s likely that Boston is already working on how to keep the outfielder
in their uniform for the rest of his career.
Betts and Boston avoided arbitration this year, agreeing to
a one-year, $20 million pact.
He will be eligible for arbitration again next year and then can hit the free
agent market following the 2020 season if he cannot come to a long-term
agreement beforehand.
The 26-year-old Betts is already on track to be one of the
best players in franchise history. A true five-tool talent, he led the league
with a .346 batting average in 2018, chipping in 47 doubles, 32 home runs, 80
RBIs, 30 stolen bases and a league-best 129 runs scored. He is also perhaps the
best defensive outfielder in the game, patrolling the expansive right field
ground at Fenway Park. His superb play led to a 10.9 WAR (BRef) last year and
an already impressive total of 35.2 in his four-plus years in the majors.
Unsurprisingly, the Harper signing will impact negotiations
when attempting to lock down Betts because of the benchmark it has set in terms
of length and total value. Additionally, Harper was able to avoid any deferred
money and has a complete no-trade clause, which teams typically are loathe to
give. Not only are the two players the same age, one would be hard-pressed to
find a serious talent evaluator who would disagree that Betts is the better
all-around player.
It would behoove the Red Sox to do everything they can to
sign Betts to a lengthy contract now. That will be easier said than done.
Although the team has money and chutzpah in spades, Betts and his agent hold
all the cards. The current free agent market, which is widely regarded as repressed
despite the recent mega deal, may be worth waiting out to see if MLB purse
strings become untangled. Additionally, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike
Trout, a similarly talented player, is due to become a free agent at
the same time. The ability for teams to bid on two generational-type talents
like these two could drive the market up even more and land Betts a deal that
could necessitate him to build a Scrooge McDuck style money pit to swim around
in during the offseason.
If I’m the Red Sox, I’m doing whatever I can to sign Betts
now and not draw this out. Is this something he would even consider? Maybe, but
undoubtably he would have to be blown away to give up his soon-to-be earned
right to be wooed by all 30 major league teams. Although he is a Boston
treasure, he will not, nor should he be expected, to give a hometown discount.
He has every reason to expect and to get a record-setting deal of his own.
Would a 13-year, $350 million contract be a good starting
point? With the luxury tax in play, any deal of this magnitude has to be
creative with how the money is dispersed across seasons. Could such a deal be
front loaded (a la Harper’s), so it is more of a 10-year, $300 million deal
with an extra three years and $50 million tacked on to account for likely
declining years? This would set the contract record and compensate Betts for
the lower pay at the end of the contract by buying out his final two
arbitration-eligible years at a significant raise.
The Red Sox should have the funds to be able to offer a deal
with no deferred money. An ironclad no-trade clause is always a difficult ask
to accommodate, given the volatility of consistent player ability over time,
but Betts has ascended to the Mount Rushmore of Red Sox history, and if anyone
should be given such a consideration, it is him.
The 2019 free
agent class does not have anyone who is a likely candidate to
surpass Harper’s deal. Thus, it becomes a tantalizing decision for Betts to
either try to sign for stupid money now or wait and see if he can get into a
situation where really, really stupid money is available a little later. There
is no clear answer as to how this will play out. However, one thing is certain
and that is that the Harper contract has muddied the waters and raised the
stakes for both sides.
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