The disappointing start to the 2019 season for the Boston
Red Sox has dominated the minds of fans and followers alike. After all, coming
off a magical 2018 campaign that saw a jaw-dropping 108 regular-season
victories and an impressive jaunt through the playoffs that resulted in a World
Series title leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. Now that the wins are starting
to come more frequently, perhaps attention can be turned to more positive
things, such as the noticeable improvement by young third baseman Rafael
Devers.
Some may have read that last sentence, hear the proverbial
record scratch and shouted, “What!?” Nearly a fifth of the way through the
season, Devers has yet to hit his first home run and is on pace to finish with
42 RBIs. He has also committed a whopping eight errors. But, like many things
in life, you have to peel back some of these less attractive attributes and see
that the 22-year-old has actually made significant strides and is poised for a
break out that will likely be coming sooner rather than later.
The most readily noticeable improvement from Devers has been
in his physical well-being. Listed last year at 237 pounds, he was heavy and not
in top conditioning, which was frequently pointed out. He took the criticism to
heart and determined not to follow the path of his predecessor, Pablo “Kung Fu
Panda” Sandoval, completely overhauled
his lifestyle and training during the offseason. He reported to camp noticeably
slimmer and in much better shape. Has anyone noticed the four bases he has
already stolen, which leads the team? Despite the high number of errors, stats
that measure a player’s range in the field indicate he is getting to more balls
than he has ever done previously in his career, no doubt a byproduct of his slimmer
self.
Coming into May 2nd, the left-handed hitter was
batting .302 with a .388 on-base percentage. Breaking down those numbers
further provide further proof of the youngster’s maturation as a player. FanGraphs
shows him with an 11.5 percent walk rate and a 16.4 percent strikeout rate.
This is a marked improvement over last year’s rates of 7.8 percent and 24.7
percent. Any time a player can cut their strikeouts by a third and simultaneously
nearly double their walk rate in the span of a year, you should take notice.
Although it hasn’t translated to balls going over the fence,
Devers is also hitting the ball with more authority than ever. His line drive
percentage of 26.7 is leaps and bounds beyond his 15.2 figure in 2018. Additionally,
his soft contact rate has regressed from 20.5 percent to 16.1 percent. These
are all signs that point to a coming surge in extra base hits and home runs. A
better approach and striking the ball harder are never bad things when it comes
to hitting.
Fastballs used to be Devers’ kryptonite, relatively
speaking. In terms of production against the various pitch types he faces, speed
gave him the most trouble last year. Keeping in line with all his other
adjustments, he is now doing his most damage against the heater, according to
FanGraphs’ pitch values.
It appears the biggest factor in what will lead to Devers
truly breaking out will be him getting the ball in the air more. He is hitting two
and a half ground balls for every one he is putting in the air, which is twice
as much as last year. MLB.com
shows his average launch angle when the ball comes off his bat and into play is
at 6.1 degrees, which is less than half of the MLB average of 12.7. Once he
figures this out it will be really interesting to see what the Red Sox have on
their hands.
It’s easy to point out glaring flaws in a baseball player, such
as errors or a lack of home runs. However, it would be patently unfair to not
recognize when such significant improvements have been made across multiple
facets of their game—and from such a young player to boot. You’ve been warned.
Devers has started showing signs of the impact player he is capable of becoming,
but there is much more coming, so don’t be surprised when he gets there.
********************************
You can check me out on Facebook or follow me on Twitter @historianandrewI have also authored a number of books (eBook and paperback) an topics of baseball that are available on Amazon.
No comments:
Post a Comment