As I have previously written,
under no circumstances should the Boston Red Sox trade Mookie
Betts this offseason. However, if the team is as dedicated
to getting their payroll under the luxury tax as they claim to be and the
2018’s departure is inevitable, there’s one team in particular, that might be a
perfect trade partner—the New York Mets.
Betts, coming off a season where he made $20 million, will
only see that figure rise in 2020—before hitting free agency in 2021. Despite
the likelihood of him signing a massive contract once he becomes a free agent,
he figure to be highly coveted if he is made available this offseason. Given
the current financial state of the team and the bleak outlook of their farm
system, which is widely considered to be bereft of top-flight young talent, the
Red Sox would need to receive a package of prospects and/or affordable young
talent if they were to pull the trigger on a deal. Enter the Mets, who have
some pieces that could be an intriguing match for Boston.
There is no guarantee that Betts will re-sign with whichever
team he is playing on in 2020. Any trade made has to be done under the
assumption that it’s a one-year rental with the chance to indoctrinate him into
new team culture to make a run at signing him long-term.
The Mets narrowly missed out on the 2019 playoffs with a
team led by young hitters like Pete Alonso
and Jeff
McNeil, and a solid starting pitching staff headlined by the superb Jacob
deGrom. Adding Betts could go a long way to rounding out their lineup and
making them a valid postseason threat in 2020.
In particular, there are two players that Boston should
target if the Mets let it be known they want to do the dance. The first is
24-year-old first baseman Dominic
Smith. Long a top prospect, he has never been able to seize a starting spot
in New York. Alonso and his 53 home runs this season means there is only room
for him off the bench or in a corner outfield position, where he is not well
suited.
Smith is actually a solid defensive first baseman, who has
hit for power and average in the minors. He disappointed in stints at the major
league level in 2017 and 2018, but flashed his potential this in 2019,
producing an .881 OPS and 134 OPS+ in 89 games (197 plate appearances). He is
not eligible for free agency until 2025 and could become an immediate starter
in Boston, where veteran 34-year-old free agent Mitch Moreland is likely to not
return.
If Smith, a three-time top-100 Baseball America prospect, produces
in a starting role anywhere close to how he did this year, he would be an
excellent complement to a young Boston infield that already boasts stars like shortstop
Xander
Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael
Devers. He’s young, inexpensive and a potential impact left-handed bat,
which would play very well in cozy Fenway Park. He checks a lot of boxes of
what a team trading their best player would want as part of the return.
A second player the Red Sox could target from the Mets is
closer Edwin
Diaz. After a stellar 2018 that saw
him post 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA with the Seattle Mariners, he was dealt to the
Mets and promptly imploded. The right hander, who possesses a wicked slider and
an upper-90s fastball, was wild and extremely homer prone this past season. In
66 games, he saved 26 games and struck out 15.4 batters per nine innings, but
he also had a 5.59 ERA, gave up 15 gopher balls in just 58 innings, while
walking 22.
Still just 25, and not eligible for free agency until 2023,
the right-handed Diaz is an excellent reclamation project, who could slide into
a the closer role in Boston, which has not been right since the departure of Craig
Kimbrel following the 2018 campaign.
Diaz threw harder than ever in 2019, according to FanGraphs.
His struggles after three excellent seasons to start his career are therefore
more attributable to approach rather than health or decline. With Boston
desperately needing an upgrade in their bullpen that had a 4.40 ERA this season,
prying away a reliever so young, affordable and full of potential would be a
coup.
It remains to be seen specifically what the Red Sox might be
seeking in a trade for Betts. New York is not a great fit if they are hoping
for major league-ready top-flight minor league talent. The trade
that brought Diaz to the Mets made a major dent in their system with
disappointing returns. However, a package starting with Smith and Diaz might
well get Boston’s attention because of how it would present an opportunity to
fill some major holes. Perhaps some not-yet-ready youngsters on the New York farm
could help sweeten and round out a deal as lottery tickets. Of course, if the
Mets were able to then re-sign Betts long-term, it would go a long way towards
erasing the bad taste they have of losing out on the last big trade plunge they
took.
In an ideal world, Betts will spend the remainder of his
career in Boston. Unfortunately, finances may force one of the best players in
the game out of town. If that happens, the team should try to leverage their
misfortune in the present into a deal that could help them in the long term. The
team with the players who can help them accomplish that the best is the Mets.
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You can check me out on Facebook or follow me on Twitter @historianandrewI have also authored a number of books (eBook and paperback) on topics of baseball that are available on Amazon.
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